The Return Motivations of Legal Permanent Migrants: Evidence from Exchange Rate Shocks and Immigrants in Australia
Working Paper 50
Publisher: Washington, DC: Mathematica Policy Research
Jan 12, 2017
- A 10 percent depreciation of home country currency leads to a 0.37 percentage point reduction in the probability that a migrant will return to her home country. This result consistent with the story that migrants return not because they are target-earners, but because of life-cycle considerations.
- The effect is strongest for migrants who have predetermined that they want to return, weak for those initially undecided, and null for those who originally stated their desire to stay. Migrants seek to optimally time their return, rather than to decide whether to return, on the basis of favorable home country conditions.
- Evidence suggests that return is a function more of purchasing power and consumption rather than employment possibilities in the home country.